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Part of How many jobs added in December?

Will the US lose jobs in December?

Rank #14747·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jan 9, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
14.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 89.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$101.54
Liquidity
$1,377.10
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
22%

Market Microstructure

Mid
11%
Spread
6.00% (5455bps)
Depth
$1.4k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jan 9, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
the US add between 25k and 50k
29.0%Trade
the US add more than 125k
19.5%Trade
the US add between 75k and 100k
19.0%Trade
the US add between 100k and 125k
17.5%Trade
the US add between 50k and 75k
17.0%Trade
the US lose
11.0%Trade
the US add between 0 and 25k
8.0%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for December 2025, scheduled to be released on January 9, 2026, 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for December is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

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