Part of Which team will earn the 1st pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?

Will the Washington Commanders earn the 1st pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Q: Which team will earn the 1st pick in the 2026 NFL Draft? - Will the Washington Commanders earn the 1st pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Current market consensus shows a 52% probability of YES based on prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

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Resolves Jan 4, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowSports

Current YES Probability

52.0%0.0% (24h)

NO: 72.5%• Updated just now

Analysis...

Volume (24h)

—

Total Volume

$10,013.00

Liquidity

$67.22

Thin

Volatility

—

Market Split

55%

Market Microstructure

Mid

28%

Spread

49.00% (17818bps)

Depth

$67

Tick Size

0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date

Jan 4, 2026

Resolution Source

Platform Decision

Event Outcomes

Outcome	Probability	Action
Las Vegas Raiders	38.0%	Trade
Cleveland Browns	38.0%	Trade
Tennessee Titans	36.0%	Trade
New York Jets	30.0%	Trade
New York Giants	29.0%	Trade
Washington Commanders	27.5%	Trade
Arizona Cardinals	27.5%	Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the team that earns the first pick in the NFL draft according to the official NFL rules for assigning draft picks. The NFL rules for assigning draft picks may be viewed at: https://operations.nfl.com/journey-to-the-nfl/the-nfl-draft/the-rules-of-the-draft/. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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