Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher at any point between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The eruption must be classified as a natural volcanic event of any Eruption Type (i.e., Explosive, Effusive, Phreatic, Lava Lake, Submarine, or similar); eruptions caused by artificial activity, testing, or human-induced explosions do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the Max VEI figures released on the "Eruptions in 2026 (New/Total)" page once released. The relevant field for determining eruption strength is the assigned VEI value for the eruptive event. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.