Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
Rank #1732·0 on watchlist
Resolves Jan 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
28.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 73.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$387,552.86
Liquidity
$21,108.79
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
54%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
27%
Spread
2.00% (741bps)
Depth
$21.1k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Jan 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
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