Part of How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by December 28?
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?
Resolves Jan 5, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowScience & Tech
Current YES Probability
83.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 26.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$3,318.29
Liquidity
$591.94
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
53%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
74%
Spread
19.00% (2585bps)
Depth
$592
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Jan 5, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Science & Tech
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 22, 12:00 AM ET, and December 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
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