Part of How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 4?
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?
Resolves Jan 4, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowScience & Tech
Current YES Probability
6.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 96.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$174.99
Liquidity
$390.48
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
7%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
3.5%
Spread
4.90% (13803bps)
Depth
$390
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Jan 4, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Science & Tech
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 28, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, and January 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Trending in Science & Tech
#1
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025?
+0.0%
#2
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
+0.0%
#3
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
+0.0%

