Part of How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 4?

Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?

Rank #8461·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jan 4, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowScience & Tech
Current YES Probability
9.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 95.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$361.36
Liquidity
$104.90
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
10%

Market Microstructure

Mid
5.0%
Spread
8.00% (16000bps)
Depth
$105
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jan 4, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Science & Tech
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
exactly 0 earthquakes
45.5%Trade
exactly 1 earthquake
39.5%Trade
exactly 2 earthquakes
24.0%Trade
more than 5 earthquakes
5.5%Trade
exactly 5 earthquakes
5.0%Trade
exactly 3 earthquakes
3.5%Trade
exactly 4 earthquakes
3.5%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 28, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, and January 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

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