Part of How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by December 31?

Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?

Rank #11043·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
0.6%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.6% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$30,712.78
Liquidity
$7,626.56
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
1%

Market Microstructure

Mid
0.40%
Spread
0.40% (10000bps)
Depth
$7.6k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
exactly 2 earthquakes
74.0%Trade
exactly 3 earthquakes
22.0%Trade
exactly 4 earthquakes
2.1%Trade
exactly 5 earthquakes
0.4%Trade
more than 5 earthquakes
0.3%Trade
exactly 1 earthquake
-Trade
exactly 0 earthquakes
-Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 13, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Trending in General

#1
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025?
+0.0%
#2
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files?
+0.0%
#3
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
+0.0%