Part of How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Rank #11994·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jun 30, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
4.3%0.0% (24h)
NO: 96.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$28,072.74
Liquidity
$1,229.25
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
8%

Market Microstructure

Mid
4.0%
Spread
0.50% (1235bps)
Depth
$1.2k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
8 or more earthquakes
75.5%Trade
exactly 7 earthquakes
10.5%Trade
exactly 6 earthquakes
6.5%Trade
exactly 5 earthquakes
4.0%Trade
exactly 4 earthquakes
0.7%Trade
exactly 3 earthquakes
0.7%Trade
exactly 2 earthquakes
0.4%Trade
exactly 0 earthquakes
-Trade
exactly 1 earthquake
-Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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