Part of # of announced new drug boat strikes in 2025?
Will there be exactly three announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
29.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 76.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$6,540.16
Liquidity
$1,187.59
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
47%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
24%
Spread
11.00% (4681bps)
Depth
$1.2k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | Action |
|---|---|---|
exactly one announced new U.S. armed forces strike | 26.5% | Trade |
exactly two announced new U.S. armed forces strikes | 26.0% | Trade |
exactly three announced new U.S. armed forces strikes | 23.5% | Trade |
zero announced new U.S. armed forces strikes | 12.5% | Trade |
exactly four announced new U.S. armed forces strikes | 10.5% | Trade |
five or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes | 7.5% | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct vessels that Donald Trump, the U.S. government, or U.S. armed forces announce were struck by U.S. armed forces while designated as narco-terrorist targets between market creation and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe.
A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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