Part of How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

Will Trump deport 200-300k people?

Q: How many people will Trump deport in 2026? - Will Trump deport 200-300k people?

Current market consensus shows a 19% probability of YES based on prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Rank #14626·0 on watchlist

Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics

Current YES Probability

19.0%0.0% (24h)

NO: 86.0%• Updated just now

Analysis...

Volume (24h)

—

Total Volume

$28.39

Liquidity

$766.33

Thin

Volatility

—

Market Split

28%

Market Microstructure

Mid

14%

Spread

10.00% (7143bps)

Depth

$766

Tick Size

0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date

Dec 31, 2026

Resolution Source

Platform Decision

Event Outcomes

Outcome	Probability	Action
more than 1m	14.5%	Trade
200-300k	14.0%	Trade
less than 200k	14.0%	Trade
300-400k	14.0%	Trade
400-500k	13.0%	Trade
500-600k	12.5%	Trade
600-700k	12.0%	Trade
800-900k	10.5%	Trade
900k-1m	9.0%	Trade
700-800k	8.5%	Trade

Resolution Rules

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

Trending in Politics

Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?

+0.0%

Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?

+0.0%

Will Aristides Teixeira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

+0.0%