Part of How many people will Trump deport in 2025?
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
Rank #5042·0 on watchlist
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
5.1%0.0% (24h)
NO: 97.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$902,487.56
Liquidity
$4,993.09
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
6%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
3.0%
Spread
4.20% (14000bps)
Depth
$5.0k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | Action |
|---|---|---|
250,000-500,000 people | 86.5% | Trade |
500,000-750,000- people | 10.0% | Trade |
less than 250,000 | 3.0% | Trade |
2,000,000 or more people | 1.1% | Trade |
750,000-1,000,000 people | 0.4% | Trade |
1,250,000-1,500,000 people | 0.4% | Trade |
1,000,000-1,250,000 people | 0.3% | Trade |
1,750,000-2,000,000 people | 0.2% | Trade |
1,500,000-1,750,000 people | 0.1% | Trade |
Resolution Rules
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes less than 250,000 non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
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