Current YES Probability
13.8%0.0% (24h)
NO: 88.2%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$157,359.85
Liquidity
$6,870.88
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
24%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
12%
Spread
4.00% (3390bps)
Depth
$6.9k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Feb 28, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
The U.S. federal budget deficit for December 2024 was $86,731,619,013.29 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2025 than in December 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
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