Part of Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

Q: Who will Trump pardon before 2027? - Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

Current market consensus shows a 20% probability of YES based on prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Rank #14647·0 on watchlist

Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral

Current YES Probability

20.0%0.0% (24h)

NO: 80.5%• Updated just now

Analysis...

Volume (24h)

—

Total Volume

$366.08

Liquidity

$1,063.34

Thin

Volatility

—

Market Split

39%

Market Microstructure

Mid

20%

Spread

1.00% (513bps)

Depth

$1.1k

Tick Size

0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date

Dec 31, 2026

Resolution Source

Platform Decision

Event Outcomes

Outcome	Probability	Action
Daniel Penny	50.0%	Trade
Young Thug	49.0%	Trade
Matt Gaetz	48.0%	Trade
Antoine Massey	47.5%	Trade
Roger Ver	46.0%	Trade
Bob Menendez	41.5%	Trade
Eric Adams	39.5%	Trade
Steve Bannon	32.5%	Trade
Roger Stone	27.5%	Trade
Joe Exotic "The Tiger King"	21.0%	Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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