Part of US GDP growth in Q4 2025?

Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?

Rank #8296·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jan 29, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowEconomics
Current YES Probability
9.9%0.0% (24h)
NO: 91.1% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$14,211.75
Liquidity
$4,432.27
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
18%

Market Microstructure

Mid
8.9%
Spread
2.00% (2247bps)
Depth
$4.4k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jan 29, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Economics
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
between 2.0% and 2.5
21.5%Trade
greater than 3.5
19.0%Trade
between 1.5% and 2.0
18.5%Trade
less than 1.0
14.0%Trade
between 2.5% and 3.0
13.9%Trade
between 1.0% and 1.5
9.5%Trade
between 3.0% and 3.5
8.9%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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