Current YES Probability
2.8%0.0% (24h)
NO: 98.4%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$3,648.69
Liquidity
$1,075.91
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
3%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
1.7%
Spread
2.30% (13939bps)
Depth
$1.1k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
The Chinese real estate developer Vanke Co., Ltd. failed to repay approximately 2 billion yuan (around $283.56 million) of onshore bonds due on December 15, 2025. After bondholders rejected its request to delay payment, the company entered a five-business-day grace period, during which it must make the payment or reach a new agreement with lenders. If neither occurs by the end of the grace period, Vanke will be considered in default on this debt. Read more here: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-win-approval-delay-284-million-bond-payment-2025-12-15/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vanke defaults on this debt by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source will be official disclosures from Vanke Co., Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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