Part of Oscars 2026: Best Picture Nominations

Will Weapons be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rank #14626·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jan 22, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
8.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 93.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$15,760.70
Liquidity
$4,996.72
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
14%

Market Microstructure

Mid
7.0%
Spread
2.00% (2857bps)
Depth
$5.0k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jan 22, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
One Battle After Another
98.9%Trade
Hamnet
97.8%Trade
Marty Supreme
96.9%Trade
Sinners
96.2%Trade
Sentimental Value
96.2%Trade
Frankenstein
92.0%Trade
It Was Just an Accident
90.0%Trade
Bugonia
57.5%Trade
Wicked: For Good
33.0%Trade
No Other Choice
25.5%Trade

Resolution Rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed movie is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2025 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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