Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30?

Rank #14647·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jun 30, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowScience & Tech
Current YES Probability
43.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 70.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$424.49
Liquidity
$305.15
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
60%

Market Microstructure

Mid
30%
Spread
26.00% (8667bps)
Depth
$305
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Science & Tech
No chart data available.

Markets Across Platforms

PlatformYesNoAction
polymarket--Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, xAI releases a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any xAI dLMM will be considered to be released if it is launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public. A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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