Part of Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Rank #10706·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
2.2%0.0% (24h)
NO: 97.9% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$6,945.03
Liquidity
$5,118.53
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
4%

Market Microstructure

Mid
2.1%
Spread
0.20% (952bps)
Depth
$5.1k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
Benjamin Netanyahu
53.0%Trade
Naftali Bennett
34.5%Trade
Avigdor Lieberman
2.6%Trade
Yair Lapid
2.1%Trade
Benny Gantz
1.8%Trade
Gideon Sa’ar
1.1%Trade
Moshe Feiglin
1.1%Trade
Gadi Eizenkot
1.0%Trade
Yossi Cohen
0.9%Trade
Yair Golan
0.9%Trade

Resolution Rules

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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